The coastline of the future: Some limits on forecasting and prediction

Abstract

Governments hate surprises. They hate it when they have to perform U-turns and ditch cherished policies in the face of unexpected events. They hate it even more when headlines shriek ‘government caught napping’. An inability by government to spot trouble approaching and to act to prevent or mitigate it is liable to be regarded by the public as a major weakness and a sign of lack of competence. There are some types of human activity that cannot by their nature be known in advance - the workings of stock-markets, or the incidence of ‘acts of God’ such as extreme weather events and earthquakes. Even in circumstances (such as international affairs) that are closely tracked by governments and their diplomatic, military and intelligence establishments, there are practical limits as to how much forewarning should be expected of untoward developments. This chapter therefore sets out briefly to examine what should be a realistic aspiration to forecasting and prediction by governments of developments that they could most benefit from knowing about in advance whether in international affairs, technology or social attitudes.