Strategies for development of Ukrainian energy market under conditions of geopolitical challenges

Abstract

Purpose. Taking into account the absence of an accurate estimate of Ukrainian economic system losses under the conditions of geopolitical challenges, the authors set the goal to carry out an analysis and assess the loss of real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine by regions and determine the economic potential of Ukrainian energy market for overcoming the decrease in Ukraine's real GDP in the aspect of the developed scenario variants of strategic development of “New energy” economy cluster. Methodology. The authors used systematic and analytical methods, modeling method, as well as foresight research approaches aimed at developing strategic variants of sustainable growth and business economic system development. Modern hybrid theory approaches also formed the theoretical framework of the study. findings. The research succeeded in substantiating the economic potential of the energy market to solve the problems of Ukrainian economic system development under the conditions of geopolitical challenges. It is shown that the lack of theoretical developments in estimation of real GDP losses and the lack of practical implementation of valuation indicators in management practice reduce the efficiency of solutions in the management of transformational processes in the economy. Possibilities of increasing budget revenues to overcome current losses of real GDP caused by the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine have been demonstrated against the background of opportunities for increasing the efficiency of implementation of energy market development strategies. The proposed action plan, based on scenario assessments of the potential for the region development, can be used by practitioners at the state level, as well as by different groups of stakeholders in the context of development and practical implementation of social and economic development strategies. Originality. For the first time in the national discourse of management, the potential of the concept of “resource losses of GDP” has been investigated for overcoming global and local (national) contradictions in social and economic development, deepened by the challenges of geopolitical nature. The necessity of practical implementation of the methodology of GDP loss estimation and improvement of the methodology of its calculation has been revealed. The level of the real GDP in the regions of Ukraine has been demonstrated. Foresight research methodology was used to determine the potential of Ukrainian energy market development. Possibilities of implementation of the strategy of economic development of Ukraine, increase in national (in particular, energy) security of Ukraine are offered. Practical value. The obtained results can serve as a benchmark for managing the transformational processes of the domestic economy, for modernizing the energy market under the conditions of fuel and energy resource constraints, in particular, when developing scenarios for integrating the energy market of Ukraine into the European energy space and ensuring state policy under the conditions of violated territorial integrity of Ukraine.