How instability creates stability: the survival of democracy in Vanuatu

Abstract

While political stability is one of the core concepts in political science, its precise meaning remains ambiguous. This paper draws a distinction between regime stability, signifying the endurance of regime types, and political stability, which refers to the life span of governments. Both of these concepts are positively associated with democratic rule, but this connection can be questioned as democracy can survive in the face of profound political instability. The paper develops these arguments on the basis of a case study of Vanuatu, a Melanesian small island state that is one of the most unlikely democracies in the world. In the face of tremendous socio-cultural fragmentation and political instability, Vanuatu’s democracy has remained intact, meaning that this country represents a perplexing combination of extreme political instability coupled with high regime stability. Based on fieldwork mainly consisting of interviews with ni-Vanuatu political elites, the analysis shows that political fragmentation and instability have likely contributed to regime stability in Vanuatu, as they have prevented the concentration of power in the hands of a single group. By highlighting the discrepancy between political and regime stability, this paper provides crucial insights for debates about democracy and stability in countries across the Global South.