Quantification and visualisation of extreme wind effects on transmission network outage probability and wind generation output

Abstract

An approach is demonstrated to visualise overhead line failure rates and estimated wind power output during extreme wind events on transmission networks. Reanalysis data is combined with network data and line failure models to illustrate spatially resolved line failure probability with data corrected for asset altitude and exposure. Wind output is estimated using a corrected power curve to account for high speed shutdown with wind speed corrected for altitude. Case studies demonstrate these methods' application on representations of real networks of different scales. The proposed methods allow users to determine at-risk regions of overhead line networks and to estimate the impact on wind power output. Such techniques could equally be applied to forecasted weather conditions to aid in resilience planning. The methods are shown to be particularly sensitive to the weather data used, especially when modelling risk on overhead lines, but are still shown to be useful as an indicative representation of system risk. The techniques also provide a more robust method of representing weather-related failure rates on lines considerate of the altitude, voltage level, and their varying exposure to weather conditions than current techniques typically provide, which can be used to usefully represent failure probability of lines during storms.