Performance of global forecast system for the prediction of intensity and track of very severe cyclonic storm ‘Phailin’ over north Indian ocean

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) formation involves interaction of a variety of processes, both on the synoptic scale as well as the mesoscale. Gray (1979) identified several large-scale conditions as necessary for tropical cyclogenesis, including preexisting low-level relative vorticity and high mid-tropospheric humidity. TCs are one of the most dangerous natural calamities throughout the globe. The Bay of Bengal TC disaster is the costliest and deadliest natural hazard in the Indian sub-continent. It has a significant socio-economic impact on the countries bordering the Bay of Bengal, especially India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Every year, they cause considerable loss of life and do immense damage to property. India and Bangladesh have a coastline of more than 8,000 km, which is prone to very severe cyclone formations in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Therefore, reasonably accurate prediction of these storms has great importance to avoid the loss of valuable lives.