Does location matter? Investigating the spatial and socio-economic drivers of residential energy use in Dar es Salaam

Abstract

Africa is set to become a key contributor to global energy demand. Urban growth and the energy use of city residents will drive much of the region's changing energy picture. However, few studies have assessed residential energy use among African cities, and the heterogeneity in energy use at the sub-city scale. We use the case of Dar es Salaam, which is among Africa's fastest-growing cities, and to our knowledge, present the first disaggregated estimates of residential energy use at the ward level. We show three main findings. First, we find a statistically significant difference in mean residential energy use among the surveyed wards, which group into four clusters representing distinct levels of household and transport-related energy use. These results show that mean residential energy use (the sum of household and transport-related energy use) is not always correlated with the socio-economic or spatial characteristics of wards-e.g. Msasani (high-income, formal ward) showed similar residential energy use as Keko (low-income, informal ward). Second, we show differences in energy use and fuel switching that occur between low-income and high-income wards: wood fuel (i.e. charcoal) is a majority contributor to residential energy use in low-income wards (Buguruni, Keko and Manzese), compared to gas, electricity and transport oils in high-income wards (Msasani and Kawe). Finally, regression models indicate that ward density has a statistically significant effect on transport-related energy use, while fuel stacking and proxies for household wealth have a statistically significant effect on household-related energy use. To conclude, we recommend that policymakers account for ward level differences in residential energy use when crafting energy sector strategies for Dar es Salaam (e.g. electrification, energy-efficient cooking, or public transportation initiatives). Policymakers may also anticipate possible convergence towards higher levels of energy use and a shift towards modern fuels, as wards develop socio-economically over time.