The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

Abstract

The relationship between winter precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Niña-magnitude extreme event is more likely to occur under El Niño conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the extreme precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to extreme precipitation.