A temperature-index model of stream flow at below-freezing temperatures in Taylor Valley, Antarctica

Abstract

We model runoff from glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with summer (December-January) average air temperatures from 1990 to 2002 for the purpose of estimating decades- to millennial-scale glacial runoff into Lakes Fryxell, Hoare and Bonney. The relationship between summer temperatures and melt is found to be exponential near the melting temperature. We propose a variety of simple models that are calibrated using measured discharge from a number of streams draining from ten glaciers in Taylor Valley. The surface melting rate is constrained by mass-balance measurements from four of the glaciers. A model based solely on temperature produced good results (coefficient of determination, r2 = 0.71) for the south-facing glaciers, but poor results for the north-facing glaciers (r2 < 0). The inclusion of a solar radiation index increased the modeled melt from the north-facing glaciers and thus improved the results (r2 = 0.73) for the north-facing glaciers, with little change from the south-facing glaciers. Including a wind index did not improve the correlation between modeled and measured runoff.