Modelling the transmission dynamics of Campylobacter in Ontario, Canada, assuming house flies, Musca domestica, are a mechanical vector of disease transmission

Abstract

Campylobacter's complicated dynamics and multiple transmission routes have made it difficult to describe using a mathematical framework. Vector-borne disease transmission has been proposed as a potential transmission route of Campylobacter with house flies acting as a mechanical vector. This study aimed to (i) determine if a basic SIR compartment model that included flies as a mechanical vector and incorporated a seasonally forced environment compartment could be used to capture the observed disease dynamics in Ontario, Canada, and (ii) use this model to determine potential changes to campylobacteriosis incidence using predicted changes to fly population size and fly activity under multiple climate change scenarios. The model was fit to 1 year of data and validated against 8 and 12 years of data. It accurately captured the observed incidence. We then explored changes in human disease incidence under multiple climate change scenarios. When fly activity levels were at a 25% increase, our model predicted a 28.15% increase in incidence by 2050 using the medium-low emissions scenario and 30.20% increase using the high emissions scenario. This model demonstrates that the dynamics of Campylobacter transmission can be captured by a model that assumes that the primary transmission of the pathogen occurs via insect vectors.