Estimating migration impacts of wildfire: California's 2017 north bay fires

Abstract

This chapter examines a cluster of wildfire conflagrations that hit northern California during October 2017, which resulted in significant loss of housing units (6874 residential structures destroyed or damaged). To assess the magnitude of the migration response and network of destinations, a method to estimate migration drawing from a proxy universe of households with students enrolled in public schools was proposed, using data on school exits and re-enrollments from a longitudinal student database. The analysis finds that a small minority of households affected by the firesmoved out of the area. Out of nearly 7800 persons displaced by the central fire complex in one city, this study estimated fewer than 1000 changed neighborhoods; of those, fewer than 500 moved out of Sonoma County. These findings are applicable to other wildfires and localized disasters where a substantial portion of housing is lost but public infrastructure in the region remains intact.