Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather to Climate with Application to Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks. Recent scientific advances have identified sources of predictability on this time range, and modeling advances are leading to better forecasts. However, much remains to be done to further improve their skill and to develop new climate service forecast products to help countries and sectorial decision makers better manage weather risks and extremes and to adapt to climate change. This paper reviews the history and describes the main challenges and opportunities for the modeling and forecast-applications communities to improve subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts and products, along with current developments catalyzed by the World Weather Research Programme and World Climate Research Programme's joint Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project. The case of tropical cyclones is highlighted as an illustrative example of the points discussed.