Deconstruction of Dryness and Wetness Patterns with Drought Condition Assessment over the Mun River Basin, Thailand

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the dominant industries in the Mun River Basin, but farmlands are frequently affected by floods and droughts due to the water resource management mode of their rainfed crop, especially in the context of climate change. Drought risk assessment plays an important role in the Mun River Basin’s agricultural sustainable development. The objective of this study was to identify the tempo-spatial variation in dryness and wetness patterns; the drought intensity, frequency, and duration; and the potential causes behind drought using the methods of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), correlation analysis, and the Pettitt test over the basin. Results showed that the Mun River Basin underwent a drying climate pattern, which is explained by the significant decreasing trend of SPEI_12M during the study period. In addition, the downstream area of the Mun River Basin was subjected to more intense, extreme dryness and wetness events as the decreased amplitude of SPEI_12M and SPEI_3M was higher than that over the upper and middle reaches. Drought intensity presented a remarkable decadal variation over the past 36 years, and an average 7% increase per decade in the drought intensity was detected. Besides, there have been more mild and moderate droughts frequently appearing over the Mun River Basin in recent decades. For the underlying causes behind the drought condition, on the one hand, the shortened precipitation day over the rainy season accounted more for the intense drought events than the precipitation amount. On the other hand, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-brought sea surface temperature anomalies aggravated the potential evapotranspiration (ETr), which might be closely related to the drought intensity and frequency variation. These tempo-spatial maps of dryness and wetness and drought occurrence characteristics can be conducive to local stakeholders and agricultural operators to better understand the agriculture industry risks and vulnerabilities and properly cope with pre-disaster planning and preparedness and post-disaster reconstruction over the Mun River Basin.