Possibilistic forecasting model and its application to analyze the economy in Japan

Abstract

It is hard to separate samples according to each latent system in the case of multivariate data. Hitherto, there are many researches to investigate the structure under obtained data and analyze such data. J. C. Bezdek proposes Switching Regression Model based on Fuzzy Clustering Model to formulate a forecasting model. The model proposed by Bezdek is to separate mixed samples coming from plural latent systems and apply each regression model to the group of samples coming from each system. That is a Fuzzy c-Regression Model. In this paper, in order to deal with the possibility of a system, we employ a fuzzy forecasting model such as a Fuzzy Switching Regression Model and a Fuzzy Switching Time Series Model. The fuzzy forecasting regression model is explained to analyze the economy in Japan.