Pandemic Severity, Policy Stringency, and Tourism Performance: A Global Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated policy effects on global tourism performance. Using daily data from 117 countries between January 23, 2020 and June 5, 2021, we applied a fixed-effects panel data model to investigate the impact and its moderators. Results show that COVID-19 cases had a significantly negative effect on tourism revenue and pricing. Specifically, a 10% increase in COVID-19 cases led to a 0.490%, 0.103%, and 0.388% decline in RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy change, respectively. Furthermore, degree of dependence on tourism, and economic support policies moderated this effect. Consequences related to revenue and demand were more remarkable for luxury tourism products than economic ones. Geographical and temporal heterogeneity were also noteworthy, and the impact of pandemic severity on revenue and demand was highly notable in certain periods, such as April and May 2020 and January to mid-March 2021. Lastly, implications are provided.