What Have We Learned About Interstate Conflicts?

Abstract

What have we learned from this inquiry into the phenomenon of interstate protracted conflicts? Why do some conflicts among states emerge as, or develop into, protracted conflicts that is, their Onset phase? Why do some protracted conflicts persist and escalate beyond the onset phase to their second, Persistence phase, in fully developed interstate conflicts, while others do not-they atrophy or are aborted? Why are many interstate conflicts Resolved, but some only after almost a century , since the end of World War I, their Resolution phase, while other protracted conflicts persist into the twenty-first century, even a millennium or more from the beginning of their historical roots, e.g., China/ Vietnam, more than two millennia? Two distinct but related paths have been pursued in this inquiry, in search for answers to these questions. One is theory construction, in the form of models-on conflict onset, persistence, and resolution. The other is extensive empirical research into interstate protracted conflicts that were-are active in world politics since the end of World War I. The answers to the three questions posed above are based upon findings from the testing of hypotheses on Onset, Persistence, and Resolution for all 33 conflicts that were active during the near-century, since the end of World War I.