Exceedance analysis of PM10 concentration in central Indian city: Predicting gap between two exceedances

Abstract

In this study the gap between the two exceedances is analyzed using time series analysis. The time series of PM10 (particulate matter of size less than 10 micron) observed during 2005–2013 in two cities; Nagpur and Chandrapur in central India is considered. Higher PM10 concentration is observed in Chandrapur as compared to Nagpur. Exponential relationship is observed between the average time between the two exceedances and annual average PM10 concentration. This information along with the PM10 concentration prediction model is utilized to predict the average number of observations between the two exceedances for the following year. k-nearest neighbor approach is used for forecasting PM10 concentration which enabled estimating the average number of observations between two exceedances using exponential relationship. The approach can be used for estimating the average number of observations between the two exceedances over a year, which can further be utilized to make appropriate decision to control and manage high particulate matter pollution in an area.