Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022

Abstract

Background. Although a substantial fraction of the US population was infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during December 2021–February 2022, the subsequent evolution of population immunity reflects the competing influences of waning protection over time and acquisition or restoration of immunity through additional infections and vaccinations. Methods. Using a Bayesian evidence synthesis model of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data (diagnoses, hospitalizations), vaccinations, and waning patterns for vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity, we estimate population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States, by location (national, state, county) and week. Results. By 9 November 2022, 97% (95%–99%) of the US population were estimated to have prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Between 1 December 2021 and 9 November 2022, protection against a new Omicron infection rose from 22% (21%–23%) to 63% (51%–75%) nationally, and protection against an Omicron infection leading to severe disease increased from 61% (59%–64%) to 89% (83%–92%). Increasing first booster uptake to 55% in all states (current US coverage: 34%) and second booster uptake to 22% (current US coverage: 11%) would increase protection against infection by 4.5 percentage points (2.4–7.2) and protection against severe disease by 1.1 percentage points (1.0–1.5). Conclusions. Effective protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease in November 2022 was substantially higher than in December 2021. Despite this high level of protection, a more transmissible or immune evading (sub)variant, changes in behavior, or ongoing waning of immunity could lead to a new SARS-CoV-2 wave.