Increased variability of the western Pacific subtropical high under greenhouse warming

Abstract

An anomalous strengthening in western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) increases moisture transport from the tropics to East Asia, inducing anomalous boreal summer monsoonal rainfall, causing extreme weather events in the densely populated region. Such positive WPSH anomalies can be induced by central Pacific (CP) cold sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of an incipient La Niña and warm anomalies in the Indian and/or the tropical Atlantic Ocean, both promoting anticyclonic anomalies over the northwestern Pacific region. How variability of the WPSH, its extremity, and the associated mechanisms might respond to greenhouse warming remains elusive. Using outputs from 32 of the latest climate models, here we show an increase in WPSH variability translating into a 73% increase in frequency of strong WPSH events under a business-as-usual emission scenario, supported by a strong intermodel consensus. Under greenhouse warming, response of tropical atmosphere convection to CP SST anomalies increases, as does the response of the northwestern Pacific anticyclonic circulation. Thus, climate extremes such as floods in the Yangtze River Valley of East China associated with WPSH variability are likely to be more frequent and more severe.