A Study on Future Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of China’s Transportation Sector

Abstract

The actual energy consumption of China’s transportation sector accounts for 10% - 15% of the nation’s total energy consumption. Experience from developed countries shows that on entering a phase of stable urbanization, transportation will account for around 30% of total energy consumption, close to levels seen in developed nations (nearly 40%). Transportation in China is one of the sectors with the fastest growth in energy consumption. A literature review shows an obvious future growth in China’s total energy usage within this sector, with a continuous increase from baseline until 2050. However, with strict policy the growth will drop a little by 2030, but will still be about 1.5 times higher than current levels (reported in 2010) in 2050. Therefore, China needs to further optimize traffic infrastructure, properly allocate resources, and improve transportation technology and energy efficiency. This will help realise infrastructural energy saving and facilitate China’s low-carbon transportation sector development.