Development of the Czech Farmers' Age Structure and the Consequences for Subsidy Policy

Abstract

Only knowing the future development of the farmers' age structure, it is possible to formulate the steps for its improvement and to plan young farmers' support. The aim of the paper is (with rgard to the European Union's programme periods) to project the age-and-sex structure of agricultural workers until 2041 and to model the scenarios of subsidies supports. Cohort-component method and data from Census 2011 are used for projection of two variants of population development. The number of old agricultural workers will exceed the number of young in 2026. It will start to grow after as the second generation of children born during the 70s of the last century (under the strong pro-population policy of the communist regime and the government of President Gustav Husák) will enter the reproduction period. As an implication it will be possible (and necessary) to support more applicants. While in 2011 it there were 12.1% of young farmers (potential applicants for subsidies) supported by EUR 205.7 bil., this amount will be able to cover 18.6% in 2041.