Beeinflusst die sinkende Wahlbeteiligung das Wahlergebnis? Eine Analyse kleinräumiger Wahldaten in deutschen Großstädten

Abstract

Does Declining Voter Turnout Affect Election Results? An Analysis of Election Data from Districts in Major German Cities Abstract: Does declining voter turnout harm center-left parties? Although this is what many observers believe, most empirical studies fail to support this thesis. In contrast to this common wisdom, this article shows that there is a negative effect of turnout decline on the Social Democratic Party and the Left Party in Germany. For the first time, this article analyzes systematically aggregate data of 1,500 urban quarters in 34 large German cities. It will be argued that the effects of social segregation and voter apathy become only visible on this small scale since social indicators and turnout data correlate very highly. Urban districts differ not only in their electoral participation but also in the election results. Left of center parties fare much better in areas that have experienced the strongest decline of turnout over the last three decades.