Cycles and Cycling

Abstract

Dynastic cycles have been recognized for thousands of years, and a comprehensive theory explaining them was developed by Ibn Khaldun of North Africa in the fourteenth century. Recently updated by Peter Turchin, it has shown predictive power. In a typical cycle, a successful leader unites followers, conquers the country, and founds a dynasty. Over time, the elite grows farther and farther from the people; the dynastic and noble families multiply, competition and corruption grow. Finally the dynasty loses popular support and becomes too corrupt to recover, and a new leader conquers it. This description fits Asian cycles, but climate change sometimes affects the timing. This theory is derivable from wider theories of “resilience” and ecological dynamics, which build on the perception of natural cycles in animal populations; such populations grow, peak, succumb to density-dependent factors, and decline, building up again when density is reduced enough for growth to return.