Borders, constituency politics, and "Our Man" voting in electoral geography of Ukraine

Abstract

The electoral geography of Ukraine is predominantly based on compositional effect studies, which consider nationality, language, and foreign policy orientations as main cleavage lines in Ukrainian society. Alternatively, scholars admit statistical significance of the regional factor and often interpret it as a historically constituted political culture. Both approaches are based on census and state statistics data (most often at oblast (regional) level) and construct artificial regions for research purposes. We assume that such approaches neglect underlying territorial configurations of electoral behavior in Ukraine. The paper is based on data at polling stations level for 2002-2014 parliamentary elections. The thorough cartographic analysis was conducted to clarify in what cases phantom borders are manifested in electoral maps and to reveal other territorial configurations of electoral behavior in Ukraine. We found that historical borders influence is limited to voting for nationalists, communists, and parties which are perceived as pro-Russian, their manifestations are dependent on each elections context and parties' electoral strategies, and they are complicated by the overlapping effects of the other factors of electoral behavior (including administrative borders). The paper reveals that constituency campaigning in single-member districts (SMD) can influence parties' results at the national level PR vote and that scaling of "our man" voting is essential for parties' electoral success and is used in electoral strategies. We also accentuate the role of administrative borders, local-national and regionalnational alliances in electoral geography of Ukraine.