GIS- and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in mountains. Case study: Vlahina mountain

Abstract

A common approach of potential natural hazards assessment in mountain areas is presented in this chapter on the base of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) methods. The subjects include excess erosion, landslides, flash floods, and forest fires. For this purpose, Vlahina Mountain (Kadiitsa, 1932 m), covering 471.2 km2 between the Republic of Macedonia and Bulgaria, was selected as a case study. This mountain border territory suffers from frequent and severe natural hazards that have high local impact on the environment, sociodemographic development, and the local economy. First, most relevant stable factors for each type of natural hazard were selected (topography, land cover, anthropogenic objects, infrastructure). Multi-layer calculation was performed based on available traditional equations, clustering and classifying procedures, using GIS and satellite images. In this way, suitable relatively "stabile" natural hazard maps were produced (modeled). Then, variable (mostly climate-related) factors are included in previous models correlated with different amounts of precipitation, temperature, wind direction, etc. Finally, the resulting GIS-based models were evaluated and tested with field verification and high-resolution Google Earth images. The verification of the models shows good accuracy. Further development of such GIS models is connected with situating of automatic remote meteorological stations and use of dynamic satellite imagery (such as MODIS), which will provide a timely warning of coming natural hazards and avoid potential damage.