Internet queries as a tool for analysis of regional police work and forecast of crimes in regions

Abstract

In the paper we propose two technologies for processing web search queries related to criminal activity. The first one is based on the comparison of the relative number of crimes and the corresponding queries in different regions. Such analysis allows to evaluate the work of the regional police. The second technology uses the correlation between the dynamics of crimes and the dynamics of queries for the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) application. It allows to forecast crimes in regions. The source data is taken from Internet depositories of the Yandex company and the Office of the Prosecutor General of Russia. The results of analysis coincide with the official governmental statistics. The results of forecast prove to be very high (2% – 6% of errors). This circumstance gives us the possibility to recommend the proposed technologies for the police departments.