A planning tool for interaction with influential actors based on paraconsistent logic

Abstract

Interaction with influential actors is essential during international operations. Currently, however, commanders only have little support, if any, for planning and performing these interactions besides their own understanding of the situation. Since there are inherent conflicts among actors, a planning tool is presented that use paraconsistent belief integration to guide analysts’ attention towards actors’ relations, beliefs, and group identification modes, which may be important to consider when planning the interaction. The planning tool is evaluated in a representative scenario where analysts have to find ways and means to disrupt a drug trade between irregular and criminal actors. The available information enables the analyst to identify likely suspects in the drug trade, identify actors that have interests that are aligned the international force, as well as important considerations for planning the interaction with these actors. Preliminary evaluations show that better planning tools are very desirable for commanders and intelligence officers.