Spatially distinct effects of preceding precipitation on heat stress over eastern China

Abstract

In many terrestrial regions, higher than usual surface temperatures are associated with (or are even induced by) surface moisture deficits. When in the warm season temperatures become anomalously high, their extreme values affect human beings causing heat stress. Besides increased temperature, rising humidity may also have substantial implications for bodily thermal comfort. However, the effects of surface moisture on heat stress, when considering both temperature and humidity, are less known. In this study, the relationship between the number of hot days in July as indicated by the wet-bulb globe temperature and the preceding three months of precipitation was assessed over eastern China. It is found that the probability of occurrence of above the average number of hot days exceeds 0.7 after a preceding precipitation deficit in northeastern China, but is less than 0.3 in southeastern China. Generally, over eastern China, the precipitation in the preceding months is negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with specific humidity in July. The combined effects generate a spatially distinct pattern: precipitation deficits in preceding months enhance heat stress in northeastern China while in southern China these deficits are associated with reduction of heat stress. In the south, abundant preceding precipitation tends to increase atmospheric humidity that is instrumental for the increase of heat stress. These results contribute predictive information about the probability of mid-summer heat stress in eastern China a few weeks ahead of its occurrence.