A goal-seeking system dynamics methodology for hospital bed capacity planning

Abstract

Patient flow is at the core of hospital healthcare planners, managers and medical staff faced with the challenge of providing quality service. If patient flow is constrained at a downstream level, the hospital occupancy rises as well as the risk for adverse events and infections among patients. In this paper we introduce a methodology that both models patient flow in a hospital setting and determines the required downstream bed capacity that matches a desired target of hospital occupancy rate. The model uses a fundamental mode of dynamic behaviour known as goal-seeking that bridges the gap between the desired and the actual state of the system. Using the data provided by Hospital León XIII, an acute third level hospital in Medellín, Colombia, we illustrate a practical application of this methodology. The results let us conclude that the use of a goal-seeking structure withing the system dynamics (SD) modelling, enhances the reach of the SD methodology for dealing with the hospital bed capacity planning problem.