Prospects for Ethanol and Biodiesel, 2008 to 2017 and Impacts on Agriculture and Food

Abstract

The impacts of increased biofuels production on key agricultural variables and consumer prices are analyzed using a multisector econometric model AGMOD. A "baseline" scenario and three alternative crude oil price scenarios are presented. Results indicate that conventional biofuels mandates of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 can be met with moderate increases in crop area and consumer prices. Biodiesel production will increasingly need to draw on non-soybean oil sources. However, except under the "high crude oil price" scenario, ethanol and biodiesel will require a premium over their energy equivalent prices. Production of cellulosic ethanol is likely to be minor through 2017.