The development of the agro-industrial complex in the cyber economy

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the research is to determine the possible scenarios for the development of the agro-industrial complex (AIC) in the cyber economy of Russia and to determine the most optimal path forward from the perspective of the provision of national food security. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use the method of scenario analysis, which allows a determination of the consequences for the national food security of Russia for various scenarios of development of the AIC. The forecasts are compiled for the period until 2024. The method of regression analysis is applied to determine the dependencies of key indicators for Russia’s national food security—affordability, availability, quality, and safety—on the share of companies in the agro-industrial sector that performs innovations, and the cost volume of implemented fixed funds in this complex for the period 2009–2018 (the post-crisis period). Findings: The authors determine the positive influence of innovative development (digital modernization) in the Russian AIC at the level of national food security. This leads to the conclusion that the most optimal scenario for the development of the AIC in the cyber economy of Russia is a transition to a cyber AIC, which envisages the highest level and systemic character of automatization and the use of the breakthrough digital technologies of Industry 4.0. Within the scenario that envisages a transition to a cyber AIC the maximum (100 points) value of the indicators of food security—price accessibility, guarantee of quality and security of food products, transparency of production and distribution, full-scale information support for interested parties, and free communication with manufacturers—will be achieved. Originality/value: A conceptual model of cyber AIC is developed. It is recommended for practical application not only in modern Russia but also in other countries of the world.