Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century

Abstract

Global warming has led to permafrost degradation worldwide. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) hosts most of the world's alpine permafrost, yet its impending changes remain largely unclear, thereby affecting regional hydrological and ecological processes and the global carbon budget. By employing a land surface model adapted to simulate frozen ground, and using state-of-the-art multi-model and multi-scenario data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, changes in permafrost distribution and its thermal regimes on the QTP are systematically predicted under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Projections for SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 show that most of the continuous permafrost region of the QTP will persist through 2050. Much of the permafrost is likely to degrade in the late 21st century, with projected area losses of 44 ± 4%, 59 ± 5%, and 71 ± 7%, respectively, by 2100. In particular, the Three Rivers Source region in the central eastern part of the QTP is a key area of permafrost degradation, where permafrost is most vulnerable and degradation occurs earliest. The mean annual ground temperature of QTP permafrost will increase by 0.8 ± 0.2°C, 2.0 ± 0.3°C, and 2.6 ± 0.3°C under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and the active layer thickness will increase by 0.7 ± 0.1 m, 1.5 ± 0.3 m, and 3.0 ± 1.0 m, respectively. The surviving permafrost under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 will be thermally unstable, which is a clear warning sign of complete disappearance. The analysis of permafrost sensitivity to climate change signifies that alpine permafrost on the QTP has low resilience to climate change, in contrast to permafrost in pan-Artic high latitudes.