Population models reveal unexpected patterns of local persistence despite widespread larval dispersal in a highly exploited species

Abstract

Nearshore marine populations are structured in metapopulations that are connected through larval dispersal across national boundaries. One of the main challenges for effective management of these metapopulations is the need for partnerships between nations that share the same resource. By coupling large-scale connectivity information to a dynamic population model, we analyzed the patterns of connectivity and population persistence for the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) metapopulation both within and across national boundaries. Although spiny lobster subpopulations are highly connected at the basin scale, several nations located in the northern Caribbean and ecoregional networks could persist independently of the larger basin-wide metapopulation. Based on these results, we propose transnational neighborhoods for spiny lobster management. Our analysis suggests that the dynamics and management of those subpopulations neighborhoods are not intrinsically dependent on “upstream” connectivity even though current rates of upstream larval supply are very high.