Random and systematic land-cover transitions in north-eastern Wollega, Ethiopia

Abstract

Africa has seen significant changes in land cover at different spatial scales. Changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) include deforestation and subsequent use of the land for arable cropping, conversion to grassland or urbanization. The work reported in this article was conducted to examine land cover transitions in north-eastern Wollega (Ethiopia) between 2005 and 2015. The analysis focused on land cover transitions that occurred systematically or randomly, and identified the main drivers for these changes. Landsat data from 2005 and 2015 were examined to better understand the various dimensions of land cover transitions, namely: swaps, losses, gains, persistency and vulnerability. Results showed that shrubland exhibited the largest gain (22%), with a 63% gainto-loss ratio, a 47% gain-to-persistence ratio and a positive net change-to-persistence ratio of 46%. Cropland showed the largest loss (19%) while grassland was the most stable type of land cover despite some fluctuation (≈10%) observed during the 10-year period. The land cover transition was dominated by systematic processes, with few random processes of change. Systematic land cover transitions such as agricultural abandonment and vegetation re-growth were attributed to regular or common processes of change. This study suggests that the implementation of practices conducive to sustainable intensification of existing agricultural land, supported by policies that promote increased diversification of Ethiopian agriculture, would mitigate pressure on forests by avoiding their future conversion to cropland.