Policy

Abstract

The preceding chapters document how climate change and climate variability will impact Texas: temperatures will rise, heat waves will occur more frequently, it will be drier west of the Interstate 35 corridor, severe weather will become more frequent, in-stream flows will fall, biodiversity will decline, and the sea level will rise. The exact timing of these changes and the speed at which they will occur remain uncertain. It is also unknown whether some of the predicted changes will occur gradually or suddenly after a tipping point has been reached. These findings echo what we presented in the first edition of this book, published in 1995. Results of more recent studies on climate change and Texas include: • In 1997 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a report, Climate Change and the States, that came to similar conclusions (EPA 1997). Its findings are summarized in Table 10.1. • A national assessment published in 2000, "The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change," added important points: The summer heat index (which combines temperature and humidity) will increase significantly, heat stress for people and livestock will be more severe, soil moisture will decline as precipitation decreases and evaporation increases, reductions in water supply and quality will pose problems primarily for urban and poor populations, the coastal zone will suffer significant loss of property and damage to ecosystems as a result of coastal flooding and erosion, oil refineries and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway will be at risk from more frequent and more intense storms, and the health of urban populations will be impaired by an increase in smog-forming gases from fossil fuel power plants (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2000). • Norwine and John (2007) concluded that South Texas by 2100 will be drier, hotter, and stormier. Barrier islands will have been lost, and saltwater intrusion will diminish water supplies. • A recent study by the U.S. Global Change Research Program emphasizes the risk of more intense droughts: "The consensus of most climate-model projections is for a reduction of cool-season precipitation across the U.S. Southwest and northwest Mexico" (NOAA 2008). The likely impacts for Texas fall within the range of changes predicted for North America by Working Group 2 of the 2007 IPCC Assessment (IPCC 2007): IPCC assigns "very high confidence" to stress and damage from extreme weather and rising sea level, as well as infrastructure, health, and safety issues (Table 10.2). Taken together, the findings about the expected impacts of climate change on Texas have not changed fundamentally over the last decade and a half, but the evidence is now more extensive and detailed. In contrast, the context for policy development has changed substantially. There are several reasons for this. First, decision makers have fewer excuses to defer action because of scientific uncertainty. Key questions that were controversial two decades ago have been resolved: Yes, warming occurs not only at the earth's surface but also at higher altitudes. Yes, increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies global warming. Only the regional distribution of precipitation and the exact timing of predicted changes remain uncertain and require more study. Second, climate change is no longer a distant possibility but is occurring now. "Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." This is in sharp contrast to our 1995 assumption that the impacts of climate change would be felt only by 2030. Third, the overwhelming majority of scientists are confident that observed and predicted changes in natural as well as social systems are caused by human actions. (These three statements are based on IPCC 2007.) As a result, the urgency to act on climate change has increased greatly since 1995. The 2007-2008 U.N. Human Development report starkly makes the point: "Climate change is the defining human development challenge of the 21st Century⋯ Looking to the future, no country - however wealthy or powerful - will be immune to the impact of global warming" (United Nations Development Program 2007). In this chapter I briefly review policy development in response to climate change at international, federal, state, and local levels and then discuss policy options for Texas. Several of the preceding chapters also discuss policy issues related to their subject matter. Here I focus on concrete policy measures that should be taken by state agencies and on development of a comprehensive state climate policy. (Table Presented). Copyright © 2011 by the University of Texas Press. All rights reserved.