Is the WTO agreement on agriculture still up-to-date?

Abstract

Unlike on trade the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) had a major impact on agricultural policies in the last twenty years. Although nominal support in OECD countries remained stable policies shifted from most distorting market price support to direct payments which are less trade distorting. This is a trend that can also be observed in major developing countries. This paper examines how this trend is apparent in the domestic support notifications of the EU, the US, Japan, Brazil, China and India. The move to so-called “green box” i.e. less trade distorting support is evident in the EU as well as in Japan and the US. In the US, however, the 2014 Farm Bill may signal a change of direction. In Brazil, China and India a similar trend is apparent. “Green box” support is predominant In Brazil and China whereas in India it comes second to development support in accordance with Article 6.2 AoA. If the Doha Round trade negotiations could be concluded on the basis of the broad consensus that existed in 2008 on agriculture such a result would not need major policy changes in developed nor in the developing countries referred to. But it would definitely restrain the possibility to revert to more trade distorting policies. It would also improve market access. Faced with the new challenges of food security, bio-fuels and climate change, the AoA appears capable of meeting them with the exception of food security where its rules on export taxes and restrictions are too weak.