Modeling the driving forces of the land use and land cover changes along the upper yangtze river

Abstract

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and long-time resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land uses and covers, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This paper examines the causes of the land use and land cover changes (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to provide necessary policy actions for sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a panel dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, the study develops a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by the distorted market signals. The policy implications of these findings and future directions of research are also discussed. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.