Movie Analytics and the Future of Film Finance. Are Oscars and Box Office Revenue Predictable?

Abstract

This chapter discusses to which extent modern analytics techniques can help us understand the success of movies, as measured by their box office or attributed Oscars. Interesting lessons emerge from our analyses. Predicting box office revenue on the basis of data available before the release of the movie remains difficult, even with state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction markets are a remarkably powerful tool at predicting success at Oscars. A moderate amount of controversy, as measured by the number of underlying themes raised by movie reviewers, may prove to be helpful in obtaining an Academy Award for Best Picture .