Multi-Trait Genomic Risk Stratification for Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is continuously rising with more disease cases every year. T2DM is a chronic disease with many severe comorbidities and therefore remains a burden for the patient and the society. Disease prevention, early diagnosis, and stratified treatment are important elements in slowing down the increase in diabetes prevalence. T2DM has a substantial genetic component with an estimated heritability of 40–70%, and more than 500 genetic loci have been associated with T2DM. Because of the intrinsic genetic basis of T2DM, one tool for risk assessment is genome-wide genetic risk scores (GRS). Current GRS only account for a small proportion of the T2DM risk; thus, better methods are warranted for more accurate risk assessment. T2DM is correlated with several other diseases and complex traits, and incorporating this information by adjusting effect size of the included markers could improve risk prediction. The aim of this study was to develop multi-trait (MT)-GRS leveraging correlated information. We used phenotype and genotype information from the UK Biobank, and summary statistics from two independent T2DM studies. Marker effects for T2DM and seven correlated traits, namely, height, body mass index, pulse rate, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, smoking status, and information on current medication use, were estimated (i.e., by logistic and linear regression) within the UK Biobank. These summary statistics, together with the two independent training summary statistics, were incorporated into the MT-GRS prediction in different combinations. The prediction accuracy of the MT-GRS was improved by 12.5% compared to the single-trait GRS. Testing the MT-GRS strategy in two independent T2DM studies resulted in an elevated accuracy by 50–94%. Finally, combining the seven information traits with the two independent T2DM studies further increased the prediction accuracy by 34%. Across comparisons, body mass index and current medication use were the two traits that displayed the largest weights in construction of the MT-GRS. These results explicitly demonstrate the added benefit of leveraging correlated information when constructing genetic scores. In conclusion, constructing GRS not only based on the disease itself but incorporating genomic information from other correlated traits as well is strongly advisable for obtaining improved individual risk stratification.