Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in the UK: A Comparison of Sectoral Patterns

Abstract

The paper applies innovation diffusion models to study the adoption process of solar PV energy in the UK from 2010 to 2021 by comparing the trajectories between three main categories, residential, commercial, and utility, in terms of both the number of installations and installed capacity data. The effect of the UK incentives on adoptions by those categories is studied by analyzing the timing, intensity, and persistence of the perturbations on adoption curves. The analysis confirms previous findings on PV adoption, namely the fragile role of the media support to solar PV, the ability of the proposed model to capture both the general trend of adoptions and the effects induced by ad hoc incentives, and the dramatic dependence of solar PV from public incentives. Thanks to the granularity of the data, the results reveal several interesting aspects, related both to differences in adoption patterns depending on the category considered, and to some regularities across categories. A comparison between the models for number of installations and for installed capacity data suggests that the latter (usually more easily available than the former) may be highly informative and, in some cases, may provide a reliable description of true adoption data.