Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

Abstract

The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.