In a warmer arctic, mosquitoes avoid increased mortality from predators by growing faster

Abstract

Climate change is altering environmental temperature, a factor thatinfluences ectothermic organisms by controlling rates of physiologicalprocesses. Demographic effects of warming, however, are determined bythe expression of these physiological effects through predator–prey andother species interactions. Using field observations and controlled experiments,we measured how increasing temperatures in the Arctic affecteddevelopment rates and mortality rates (from predation) of immatureArctic mosquitoes in western Greenland. We then developed and parametrizeda demographic model to evaluate how temperature affects survivalof mosquitoes from the immature to the adult stage. Our studies showedthat warming increased development rate of immature mosquitoes(Q10 = 2.8) but also increased daily mortality from increased predationrates by a dytiscid beetle (Q10 = 1.2–1.5). Despite increased daily mortality,the model indicated that faster development and fewer days exposed to predatorsresulted in an increased probability of mosquito survival to the adultstage. Warming also advanced mosquito phenology, bringing mosquitoesinto phenological synchrony with caribou. Increases in biting pests willhave negative consequences for caribou and their role as a subsistenceresource for local communities. Generalizable frameworks that account formultiple effects of temperature are needed to understand how climatechange impacts coupled human–natural systems.