Predictive scoring systems for in-hospital mortality due to acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia

Abstract

Background: Acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis is associated with high medical costs and negatively affects productivity and quality of life. Data on factors associated with in-hospital mortality due to acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia are scarce. This study aims to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and develop predictive scoring systems for clinical application in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using a hospital database of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis data at Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta (2016–2019). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality. Two scoring systems were developed based on the identified predictors. Results: A total of 241 patients were analysed; patients were predominantly male (74.3%), had hepatitis B (38.6%), and had Child–Pugh class B or C cirrhosis (40% and 38%, respectively). Gastrointestinal bleeding was observed in 171 patients (70.9%), and 29 patients (12.03%) died during hospitalization. The independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age (adjusted OR: 1.09 [1.03–1.14]; p = 0.001), bacterial infection (adjusted OR: 6.25 [2.31–16.92]; p < 0.001), total bilirubin level (adjusted OR: 3.01 [1.85–4.89]; p < 0.001) and creatinine level (adjusted OR: 2.70 [1.20–6.05]; p = 0.016). The logistic and additive scoring systems, which were developed based on the identified predictors, had AUROC values of 0.899 and 0.868, respectively. Conclusion: The in-hospital mortality rate of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia is high. We have developed two predictive scoring systems for in-hospital mortality in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients.