39 years of geochemical monitoring of laguna caliente crater Lake, Poás: Patterns from the past as keys for the future

Abstract

Since 1978 water chemistry of the Laguna Caliente crater lake has been used to monitor volcanic activity at Poás, Costa Rica, making it arguably the best studied hyper-acidic crater lake on Earth. During these 39 years, three phases of unrest occurred, manifested through frequent phreatic eruptions, with each a duration of several years to over a decade (1978–1980, 1986–1996, 2006–2016). We here present a novel technique to deal with the long time series of the chemical composition of water of Laguna Caliente, independent on previous deterministic research and resulting conceptual models. Common patterns of chemical parameters in relation with phreatic eruptive activity for the period 1978–September 2014 are sought, applying the objective statistical method of Pattern Recognition. This resulted in the definition of the strongest precursory signals and their respective thresholds. Numerical outcomes often confirm findings based on geochemical models (e.g. SO4, SO4/Cl and pH are strong monitoring parameters). However, some surprising parameters (opposite behavior of Mg/Cl ratios, decreases in Ca and Mg concentrations, increasing Al/Mg ratios) still need a geochemical explanation and should be a focus for future research strategies. The obtained parameters and thresholds were retrospectively applied for the “test period” of the Pattern Recognition method (November 2014–February 2016). This test provided hints that suggested that eruptive activity at Poás was not yet over, despite apparent quiescence in early 2016. Indeed, after new phreatic eruptions since May 2016, the 2006–2016 phreatic eruptive cycle culminated in phreatomagmatic activity in April 2017. We conclude that evaluating time series of chemical composition of crater lakes framed in the Pattern Recognition method can be a useful monitoring approach. Moreover, increased sampling frequency can provide more details and more adequate prediction of phreatic activity at Poás. Comparing Laguna Caliente with other two well monitored acidic crater lakes (Ruapehu Crater Lake, New Zealand and Yugama, Kusatsu-Shirane, Japan) Poás results unique in many ways and undoubtedly the most active crater lake of the three during the past four decades.