Climate Change Effects on Mountain Regions Marginalized by Socio-Economic Transformation—The Case of North Caucasus

Abstract

Mountain regions of the North Caucasus are traditional rural areas which can be called as marginal territory becoming the borderland in 1991. Weakening and even ceasing the economic activity, population outflow and abandoning the mountain grasslands make marginality as a many-sided problem of the mountain regions. These processes are occurring at the background of the climate change. The short overview of the demography and history of land use in the study area of North Ossetia, Central Caucasus, is given. The estimate of changes in heat and humidity was made for the mountains of Central Caucasus using vegetation index (NDVI), the index of vegetation conditions (VCI), Satellite Climatic Extremes Index (SCEI) and the sum of active temperatures (air temperature above + 10 °C). Methods of remote sensing and mapping of vegetation indexes (VCI, NDVI, SCEI) prove that there is a trend to humidity increase from the beginning of XXI century in the studied mountain grassland areas. That is evidence of improving conditions of vegetation development. At present, the expansion of pine forests and elfin birch woods on the grasslands and restoration of meadow steppes and subalpine meadows on the former agricultural lands are observed. These processes occur under climate change (rising temperatures, increasing moisture) in the synergy with the weakening of the grazing. The climate change with positive consequences for the mountain landscapes can be one of the opportunities to overcome some aspects of marginality of the territory creating favorable conditions for multi-functional economy instead of mono-functional rural activity.