The economic consequences of leaving European Union by Great Britain

Abstract

Motivation: In a referendum on June 23, 2016, the British people voted to leave the Eu-ropean Union. No nation state has ever left the EU. The theory and practice of European integration is rich, but scientific studies considering the opposite situation thus far do not exist. So the question of economic consequences caused by Great Britain leaving the Euro-pean Union is very pertinent. Aim: The aim of this article is to identify and discuss the direct economic consequences of Great Britain leaving the European Union. The analysis was performed for the United Kingdom and for the European Union. Poland is a part of the EU. Therefore, among the effects on the EU side of the research there is an emphasis on the results for Poland. The effect of budgets, trade and migration has been analyzed. Results: The effects of the United Kingdom leaving the EU will be more unfavorable for the UK than for the EU. The amount of losses depends on the type of Brexit. A soft Brexit means a relatively slow negotiation designed to retain as close as possible a relationship with the rest of the EU. Access to the EU's single market will reduce losses due to having as few tariffs as possible. A hard Brexit would mean getting out of the EU quickly, having no institutional or political relationship with the union, and regaining full control of UK borders. Therefore, a negotiated free trade deal with the EU would seem to reduce losses for everyone.