A case-based evolutionary group decision support method for emergency response

Abstract

According to the characters of emergency decision-making in crisis management, this paper proposes a special decision-making method to deal with the inadequate information, uncertainty and dynamical trend. This CBR-based decision support method retrieves similar cases from Case Base and forecasts the prior distribution of absent feature values using Bayesian Dynamic Forecasting Model. Then the result is put into Markov-based state transition matrix to order suggested solutions by suitability and assist consensus achieving among decision makers. This novel method is suitable to emergency decision making as it provides support for the dynamic and evolutionary character of emergency response. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.