Modeling of Long-term Operating Regimes of Hydro Power Plants as Part of Energy and Water Systems in the Context of Uncertainty

Abstract

Energy and water management systems are closely interrelated through the operating regimes of Hydro Power Plants (HPP) or HPP cascades. This is first of all, characteristic of energy systems with a large share of HPP. One of such systems is the energy system of Siberia, which includes the Angara-Yenisei cascade of HPP, the largest in Russia and one of the largest in the world. The studies were carried out on the example of this energy system and the water management system of the Angara and Yenisei basins. A specific feature of the energy and water management systems of Siberia is a significant impact of stochastic factors on their operation. These factors include natural (water inflow in the reservoirs in the spring-summer period and outdoor temperature in the autumn-winter period), and also economic (demand for electric and thermal energy, electricity and heat prices) factors. The paper presents mathematical models for the joint study of energy and water systems. These models factor in the specifics of the systems during planning for a period of up to 1 year. Modeling of the interconnected operation of energy and water systems makes it possible to solve important problems. These are the improvement in the reliability and stability of the considered systems, increase in their economic efficiency (minimization of electricity prices for consumers), assessment and minimization of various risks, prevention from or reduction in possible damages, rational planning of repairs, the formation of fuel reserves at thermal power plants, and others.