Proxy Assessments and Early Pretrial Release: Effects on Criminal Case and Recidivism Outcomes

Abstract

Despite growing evidence on the harmful effects of pretrial detention on individuals’ criminal case processing and community integration, there has been limited empirical investigation of strategies to facilitate early release from detention. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the effects of risk assessment-informed early release decisions on case processing and recidivism outcomes. Participants were 1,327 individuals who were booked into a U.S. midwestern jail and assessed using a proxy risk assessment over a 1-year period. Multivariable logistic regression models examined the effects of early release on any criminal charge, any plea, any guilty disposition as well as any new or any arrest at 6- and 12-month postrelease. Results showed approximately 46.9% of the sample received early release an average of 3.5 hr after booking. Proxy assessments were moderate predictors of any arrest and any new arrest at 6- and 12-month follow-up. Proxy risk levels were moderately associated with early release decisions overall. Early release from detention did not predict likelihood of being charged, accepting a plea, or having a guilty disposition. However, defendants with lower risk scores who received early release were more likely to plead guilty relative to those who did not receive early release. Overall, early release was associated with a lower likelihood of any rearrest at 6- and 12-month follow-up. Our findings suggest brief screening strategies implemented at jail intake produce accurate assessments of risk and may serve as a mechanism to decrease exposure to the jail environment.