Dynamic Rupture Process of the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake (SE Türkiye): Variable Rupture Speed and Implications for Seismic Hazard

Abstract

We considered various non-uniformities such as branch faults, rotation of stress field directions, and changes in tectonic environments to simulate the dynamic rupture process of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake in SE Türkiye. We utilized near-fault waveform data, GNSS static displacements, and surface rupture to constrain the dynamic model. The results indicate that the high initial stress accumulated in the Kahramanmaraş-Çelikhan seismic gap leads to the successful triggering of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and the supershear rupture in the northeast segment. Due to the complexity of fault geometry, the rupture speed along the southeastern segment of the EAF varied repeatedly between supershear and subshear, which contributed to the unexpectedly strong ground motion. Furthermore, the triggering of the EAF reminds us to be aware of the risk of seismic gaps on major faults being triggered by secondary faults, which is crucial to prevent significant disasters.