CO2 emission trends and risk zone mapping of forest fires in subtropical and moist temperate forests of Pakistan

Abstract

Due to high temperatures and dry summer in most subtropical regions, forest fires are of a regular occurrence. Fires emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases which retroact on the ecological systems. This study provides CO2 emission estimates from forest fires and risk zones in subtropical and temperate forests of Pakistan. CO2 emission was calculated using average dry matter g/m2, burned area, combustion factor (CF) and burning efficiency (Ef) following the guidelines of Inter-governmental Panel on climate change (IPCC). Fire risk zones were created by using GIS tools considering anthropogenic and natural geological factors. Results showed that average dry organic matter is 13837 ± 5774.64 gm-2, while average annual CO2 emission is 7280 ± 5369 Gg with 56.6% average annual increase of CO2 emission. Meanwhile, highest emission of about 22799 Gg was recorded in 2009 corresponding to about 145.6 ha of burnt forests. Additionally, over 56% of the area or 9.33% (extreme risk zone) and 45.20% (high risk zone) is threatened by fire. Forest fire trends are mainly due to an increase anthropogenic activities and changes in weather conditions. Understanding forest fire threats and trends, will aid the government authorities in making appropriate conservation programs to curtail these forest fire threats and carbon dioxide emission trends.